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The New UAE Corporate Tax

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is famous for, among other things, zero tax. That ended this year. The UAE now has a 9% tax rate for all but a very few exempted industries.

The implementation of a corporate tax is not because the UAE needs the money to build new roads, hospitals, schools or public facilities. The UAE is home to some of the most extraordinarily modern, effective and high-quality public utilities and infrastructure in the world. None of it required tax revenues. Nor was it all paid for with money from oil revenues.

Similarly, the UAE is not implementing a tax regime to fund public services such as policing, rubbish collection, healthcare or education. Again, the UAE embarrasses high-tax countries when it comes to public safety, maintenance of public spaces, healthcare and education. People in the UAE cannot even conceive of being robbed, let alone mugged; or even seeing a homeless drug addict. The unparalleled safety and cleanliness of the UAE has not required tax revenues; nor was it all funded by oil revenues.

The UAE has massive, diverse, revenue generating investments within itself, and throughout the world.

The UAE is also not implementing a tax regime to fund a social welfare program. 89% of the UAE’s 9 million residents are expatriates. They must support their residency through work sponsorship or business profits, or else they have to leave. Technically, there is limited assistance available to the 11% minority of native emirate citizens. In reality, there is an unspoken positive discrimination applied to emirate citizens for various job positions. So taxes are not needed for welfare.

The UAE is also not implementing a corporate tax to cover a ballooning government bureaucracy and out-of-control public indebtedness, like that seen throughout the “developed” Western nations, such as Australia. The UAE has massive, diverse, revenue generating investments within itself, and throughout the world.

The idea that Governments need an instrument as crude as tax to monetise a national economy is as archaic as it is absurd. We live in a world in which some of the largest and most successful companies lose money on their core business in order to drive greater profits from tangential sources. Airlines, for example, knowingly lose money from the business of flying planes, because greater profits come from the financialisation of their frequent flyer programs. Google and Facebook also stand out as companies whose revenues exceed the GDP of entire countries despite their ‘core products’ being ostensibly given away for “free”.

The UAE has attracted literally trillions of dollars of foreign investment, hundreds of thousands of companies, millions of residents, tens-of-millions of visitors each year, and built some of the most incredible cities on earth in scarcely a few decades; primarily, arguably, as a result of eschewing taxation. So why would the UAE change direction after achieving such success following a far more sophisticated business model?

UAE is home to some of the most extraordinarily modern, effective and high-quality public utilities and infrastructure in the world.

The reason the UAE is sacrificing the zero-tax brand it worked so hard to build, is due to political pressure from socialist, globalist, kleptocratic politicians in high-tax, western nations. That is, the same politicians responsible for the terminal decline and humiliation of the West – the exponentially increasing debt, monetary debasement, deindustrialisation, illegal migration, growing homelessness, increasing crime, energy shortages, insane ‘woke’ politics, military weakness, civil unrest etc etc etc – are demanding that other nations, like the UAE, follow their lead.

Unfortunately, the last time the UAE ignored the bullying of Western politicians they were placed on a so-called international ‘grey list’ by the Financial Action Task Force (FTAF) for not doing “enough” to “fight money laundering”. Compared to the money laundering taking place in the US, the volume going through the UAE is a pittance. But the issue was never about money laundering; it was demonstrating fealty to the Western political cabal. The ‘grey-listing’ was to embarrass the UAE rulers. The practical effect was simply to increase the paperwork burden placed on UAE banks moving money to and from overseas. That burden has made routine banking more difficult and expensive for legitimate SMEs, while having virtually no impact on companies and individuals transacting large sums. 

So the embarrassingly incompetent boobs overseeing the decline of the world’s richest countries have finally forced the UAE to start penalising businesses for being successful. The question now is: what is the likely impact going to be? 

In 2018, the UAE was similarly pressured into implementing a goods and services tax (VAT) that included precious metals. The new 5% tax caused a 75% reduction in precious metal trade. Just 6 months later the Government exempted precious metals from the tax, restoring trade to previous levels.

So it will be very interesting to see what comes of the new UAE tax.

E-Scooters: A Two Wheeled Burden?

Since approximately 2016 there has been a rapid increase in personal and for-hire electric scooters (e-scooters) in cities around the world. Over 600 cities now have e-scooter for-hire services and, globally, the electric scooter market is valued at more than AUD $49 billion and growing at 10% per year. In Australia, there was an 800% increase in e-scooters from 2016 to 2021.

However, there are serious concerns regarding e-scooter related injuries.  

The Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset has released figures regarding e-scooter riders seeking emergency care in hospitals: 502 in the 2022 financial year, then 958 in the 2023 financial year; nearly a twofold increase year on year. Victoria introduced its e-scooter trial with 2500 rental scooters in Melbourne, Port Phillip, and Yarra council areas in February 2022, and legalised  private e-scooters on public roads in March 2022.

Despite the minimum riding age being 16 there have been 193 presentations by children below this age over the past 3 years. Royal Australasian College of Surgeons Victorian chair Dr Patrick Lo has stated that 3 children presented in one week with a brain haemorrhage, brain swelling and a broken neck. 42 unfortunate pedestrians have also been treated for e-scooter-related accidents.

Mortality due to e-scooter traffic accidents was 9.2%.

Queensland has released similar figures. In that state, e-scooter injuries admitted to hospitals were as follows: 279 in 2019, 877 in 2022, and 801 by September of 2023.

In Western Australia there was a 386% percent increase in hospital admissions in the year July 2021 to June 2022. There was a 200% increase in injuries between 2017 and 2022.

A study by the University of California San Francisco found that in the US, e-scooter-related injuries and hospital admissions increased by 222% from 2014 to 2018, climbing above 39,000. Hospital admissions expanded by 365%.

Severe Injuries, Lack of Helmets

The study “Comparison of Injuries Associated With Electric Scooters, Motorbikes, and Bicycles in France, 2019-2022”, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), looked at 5,233 e-scooter injury patients. Mortality due to e-scooter traffic accidents was 9.2%. The risk of severe traumatic brain injury, 26%.

In a study done by University of California San Francisco, electric scooter injuries included fractures 27%, contusions/abrasions 23% and lacerations 14%. Most concerning, almost one third reported head trauma. 

The study “Characteristics of Electric Scooter and Bicycle Injuries After Introduction of Electric Scooter Rentals in Oslo, Norway”, published in the JAMA, found that e-scooter injuries often occur at night, to young adults, who aren’t wearing helmets, and have a high blood alcohol reading. Dr Sarah Whitelaw, an emergency doctor in Victoria, echoes this sentiment. She said in addition, riders were often travelling at high speeds.

In Australia, there was an 800% increase in e-scooters from 2016 to 2021.

Economic Burden

In the US, UCLA research reveals that the healthcare cost of e-scooter injuries increased from $6.6 million in 2016 to $35.5 million in 2020.

Doctors in New Zealand reviewed data of surgeries on injured scooter riders from October 2018 to February 2019. Adding up costs including anaesthetic, theatres, staff, implants, time in hospital and lost income, each injury averaged $19,282 NZD. Over $400,000 was spent in less than five months. 

The study “The impact of electric scooters in Melbourne: data from a major trauma service” published on Wiley, looked at e-scooter injuries admitted to Royal Melbourne Hospital from January 2022 to January 2023. 247 riders and 9 pedestrians presented for treatment. 33% of riders were wearing helmets at the time of incident. 50% reported head injuries. Hospital cost totalled $1.9 million, and median cost was $1321.66 per patient. 

According to the hospital’s website, “The Royal Melbourne Hospital is part of Australia’s public health care system and offers hospital care to any Australian resident under Medicare arrangements.” This also applies to the 696 other public hospitals across Australia many of which would be treating e-scooter injuries, paid for by the taxpayer. 

Solution

The question for libertarians is not whether to restrict or ban e-scooters, which is what authoritarians prefer, but how to move the financial risk and economic burden of injuries from taxpayers to e-scooter riders.

One potential solution is to establish an insurance requirement for both rental and private e-scooter owners. Purchased by riders, this would function like first-party and third-party car insurance. In the event of an accident, the insurance would cover resultant medical costs. 

Consistent with the concept of personal responsibility, this approach would shift financial liability to individual riders and decrease reliance on public healthcare funds. It might even become a model for managing other health risks.

(Don’t) Be Your Own Boss

By ‘closing the loopholes’, Labor ultimately seeks to undermine self-employment, casual employment and competition, Libertarians must take note. 

November 17 2023 The scene is the 2023 HR Nicholls Society conference in North Sydney; the speaker is Ken Phillips; the topic: Federal Labor’s ‘Closing the Loopholes’ bill. 

Phillips is unassuming, plainly dressed, but he means business. In a conference otherwise dominated by partisan interests and the society’s own history, he cuts through with a powerful and practical message. Having dissected and analysed all 274 pages of the ‘Loophole’ bill and written his own submission (on behalf of Self-Employed Australia [SEA]), he has been in regular contact with the crossbench, who Labor currently relies on to pass legislation. 

Ken Phillips

Phillips was optimistic then, satisfied that the crossbench were heeding his call for caution and discernment over the prevailing narrative. But it was not to last; Senators David Pocock and Jackie Lambie combined to split, then pass, the first tranche of the bill, including concerning new provisions that escalate the power of union delegates. But the worst is yet to come.

Subject to an inquiry this year, the remainder of the bill seeks to undermine commercial contracts, create strict pre-conditions that define ‘casual’ employees, and effectively prevent workers from being their own boss. 

The loophole bill relies on the rhetoric of exploitation: pitting workers against employers and removing agency from consenting participants in the ‘gig economy’. 

90% of people working for digital gig platforms are also employed elsewhere.

The reality is quite different – I should know, having been a contract worker and a casual for much of my working life. These reforms in fact represent a direct attack on my livelihood. 

Keep it casual

As Phillips demonstrates in his analysis of wages by employee type, casual workers are financially better off on an hours-worked basis to the tune of about 6% (more if you consider the higher super contributions). What’s more, being a casual employee allows for the worker to ramp up or down their hours, take on a different employer and maintain flexibility much more readily – something I made use of as a student particularly.  

Businesses also require flexibility to operate effectively in the marketplace, as demand and staffing requirements fluctuate. The loopholes bill creates stringent regulations on how an employee can be considered casual. This will simply disincentivise businesses from hiring staff as employers will have fewer options to reduce their wage liability when business is slower. 

Fixed contracts

Contract and self-employed workers are also in the sights of Labor and the unions. The proposed legislation coins a new term – ‘employee like’ – to describe self-employed workers. This means self-employed workers will be subject to the industrial relations system, undermining the nature of commercial contracts between consenting parties. 

As a contract worker myself, I do not miss the IR system. My generous employers allow me paid leave entitlements anyway, and I can readily work for an employer based anywhere in the world, making my own choices with regards to super contributions.  

Pitting workers against employers and removing agency from consenting participants in the ‘gig economy’.

Getting a gig

A major objective of the loophole bill is supposedly to protect workers from exploitation in the ‘gig economy.’ The reality is quite different: well over 90% of people working for digital gig platforms are also employed elsewhere – they are ‘hustlers’, earning top-up income outside of regular employment.

There are concerns for market competition too. By eliminating self-employed workers from the marketplace, large operators in industries such as transport and construction will face less competition. How this market concentration will benefit workers and consumers, or is consistent with Labor’s message to voters, I cannot reconcile.  

An unlikely union

It is a good deal for those large operators though, and it’s an especially good deal for the unions, perhaps revealing the true motivations behind this bill. Trade union membership has dwindled for decades, and the availability of flexible or casual work has further undermined their influence. 

By forcing all workers into employment contracts subject to IR law, the unions can once again wield significant influence. Large employers can collude with these unions and suppress competition, diluting the influence of smaller or independent players in their respective industries. 

The big loser is of course the workers, who lose flexibility in their employment arrangements, are forced to work in industries dominated by a few large players, and are financially less well off if they are casual. 

It is truly a sad state of affairs that the party of workers would propose such a bill, but it is characteristic of Australian politics, long divorced from the interests of common workers.
Further reading: https://selfemployedaustralia.com.au/be-your-own-boss/

Raising Free Thinkers: The Case for Homeschooling

Two months ago I wrote an article in which I questioned my boy’s childcare centre for indoctrinating kids at preschool age about the controversial political matter of Acknowledgment of Country. 

Shortly after, our second baby was born. During the hospital stay, unable to work much, I listened to several audiobooks that made me reconsider our children’s future education. I had long considered homeschooling but had comfortably settled on sending them to a private school. After careful discussion, my wife and I decided homeschooling is the right choice for our family.

Homeschooling aligns seamlessly with libertarian values, fostering individual freedom, intellectual growth, strong family bonds, and meaningful social interactions. This article summarises our thoughts on the ideological, intellectual, financial, familial, and social justifications for choosing to homeschool our two children.

Ideological Justification: Homeschooling as an Act of Anti-State

Homeschooling, viewed through a libertarian lens, represents a profound act of anti-state resistance. It rejects the traditional “factory model of education,” designed to produce a uniform, obedient workforce suitable for industrial society, heavily influenced by state mandates and standardised curricula. By choosing to homeschool, parents assert their right to direct their children’s education, free from government control and standardised norms. 

Homeschooled children interact with people of various ages and backgrounds, enriching their social experiences and fostering a broader understanding of the world.

This opting out of the state-run education system rejects the regimented, one-size-fits-all approach of public schooling, which often emphasises conformity over individuality and critical thinking. Homeschooling allows for a more personalised and flexible educational experience, fostering independent thought and a deeper connection to learning, which starkly contrasts with the efficiency-driven, industrial roots of the current public education system. This choice embodies a broader libertarian ethos of minimising state intervention in personal and family matters, thereby promoting freedom, autonomy, and self-reliance.

Intellectual Justification: Personalised and Effective Learning

One of the greatest advantages of homeschooling is the ability to provide a personalised education tailored to each child’s strengths, weaknesses, and interests. Traditional schooling often hinders the intellectual growth of children who do not fit the mould. Homeschooling allows for a more flexible and adaptive learning environment, where children can explore subjects in greater depth and at their own pace.

This personalised approach not only enhances academic performance but also fosters the ability to self-learn, which is crucial for lifelong intellectual development. By cultivating self-directed learning skills, children become more engaged and motivated in their educational journey, making the process both more enjoyable and sustainable. They learn how to seek out information, critically evaluate sources, and apply knowledge in real-world contexts, far beyond the confines of traditional academic settings. Ultimately, homeschooling nurtures not just academic excellence in the short run but also the capacity for lifelong learning and intellectual curiosity, providing a foundation for ongoing personal and professional growth.

Financial Justification: Investment in Long-Term Gains

A key concern in choosing homeschooling is the financial burden. My work keeps me heavily occupied, and a high mortgage adds pressure. Homeschooling requires sacrificing work schedules and dedicating more time to children’s education, doubling the financial strain. This concern is common among libertarians, especially in expensive cities like Sydney.

However, we see homeschooling as an investment, yielding significant long-term benefits. The financial cost is offset by the gains in children’s education and personal development. Additionally, homeschoolers can take holidays during school terms when travel is cheaper, which benefits families with extended families overseas. Homeschooling also encourages children to develop life skills, financial literacy and responsibility from a young age, likely bringing financial rewards earlier.

Family Bond: Strengthening Family Connections

Homeschooling fosters a closer family bond by allowing parents and children to spend more quality time together. Parents can gain a better understanding of their children’s needs, interests, and learning styles, leading to a more effective educational experience. 

Homeschooling aligns seamlessly with libertarian values, fostering individual freedom, intellectual growth, strong family bonds, and meaningful social interactions.

Additionally, the involvement of grandparents and other extended family members can further enrich the homeschooling experience. Intergenerational communication allows children to learn from the wisdom and experiences of their elders, fostering respect and understanding across generations. This dynamic can also provide emotional support and a broader perspective on life, enhancing the educational journey.

Social Justification: Learning Without Peer Pressure

A significant social advantage of homeschooling is the opportunity for children to grow without the negative influence of peer pressure. Instead of being confined to a classroom with same-age peers, homeschooled children interact with people of various ages and backgrounds, enriching their social experiences and fostering a broader understanding of the world. This exposure helps develop better social skills and a well-rounded social aptitude. 

Homeschooling, when done right, provides numerous opportunities for real-life social interactions through community activities, volunteer work, and diverse social engagements, preparing children for the complexities of adult life and helping them build meaningful relationships and valuable life skills beyond the traditional classroom setting.

Conclusion

Homeschooling offers a compelling option for libertarian families seeking to raise free-thinking, intellectually curious and well-rounded individuals. It aligns with the core values of liberty and personal responsibility, providing a tailored and effective educational experience. Despite the financial challenges, the long-term gains in personal development, family bonds, and social skills make homeschooling a worthwhile investment. By embracing homeschooling, libertarian parents can ensure that their children receive an education that truly reflects their values and prepares them for a life of independence and critical thinking.

GST is Better than Income Tax

In my last article I argued that a flat and broad-based income tax is much the same as a broad-based GST, so we have little reason to hate the concept of income tax more than the concept of GST. I argued this by setting out an imaginary scenario with five citizens, one business, and no government.

But there is an inherent difference between income tax and GST that makes GST better. I will argue this by adding an additional year to the imaginary scenario, and by honing in on three of the citizens – the three employees.

Year 1

In year 1 each employee earns a salary of $100,000, enough to buy 100,000 products at $1 each. 

One employee is short-sighted and borrows $100,000 from another employee, who we will call the long-sighted employee. So in year 1 the short-sighted employee buys 200,000 products while the long-sighted employee buys nothing.

Year 1 with no government

Citizen…receives…and pays…
The short-sighted employee$100,000 of salary, plus $100,000 borrowed from the long-sighted employee$200,000 for 200,000 products
The long-sighted employee$100,000 of salary, less $100,000 lent to the short-sighted employeeNothing for no products
The take-it-as-it-comes employee$100,000 of salary$100,000 for 100,000 products

To extract the money it demands, the government imposes an income tax rate of 19.8 per cent.

Year 2

In year 2 each salary is $104,030, but this amount now buys only 101,000 products because the product price has risen from $1 to $1.03.

The salary of the short-sighted employee is transferred to the long-sighted employee to pay off the previous year’s debt. As such, the long-sighted employee buys 202,000 products in year 2, while the short-sighted employee buys nothing.

Year 2 with no government

Citizen…receives…and pays…
The short-sighted employee$104,030 of salary, less $104,030 paid to the long-sighted employeeNothing for no products
The long-sighted employee$104,030 of salary, plus $104,030 paid by the short-sighted employee$208,060 for 202,000 products
The take-it-as-it-comes employee$104,030 of salary$104,030 for 101,000 products

Bring Out The Government

Now imagine instead a scenario where there is a government, and let us assume the government’s taxation does not discourage the citizens from producing as much as in the absence of government.

In year 1 the government demands enough money from the three employees to buy 60,000 products. The government could get the money via a 20 per cent income tax on the salaries of the employees.

Year 1 with income tax

Citizen…receives…and pays…
The short-sighted employee$80,000 of after-tax salary, and $80,000 borrowed from the long-sighted employee$160,000 for 160,000 products
The long-sighted employee$80,000 of after-tax salary, less $80,000 lent to the short-sighted employeeNothing for no products
The take-it-as-it-comes employee$80,000 of after-tax salary$80,000 for 80,000 products
Government$60,000 in tax$60,000 for 60,000 products

In year 2, the government ups its demand, and now seeks enough money from the three employees to buy 60,600 products.

If the government gets the money via income tax, it ends up taking more from savers compared to the amount taken from borrowers, and compared to the amount taken from those who neither save nor borrow.

Consider the long-sighted employee, who lent $80,000 to the short-sighted employee in year 1, and who receives $83,452 from the short-sighted employee in year 2. 

Year 2 with income tax

Citizen…receives…and pays…
The short-sighted employee$83,452 of after-tax salary, less $83,452 paid to the long-sighted employeeNothing for no products
The long-sighted employee$83,452 of after-tax salary, plus $83,452 paid by the short-sighted employee, less $683 of tax on interest $166,221 for 161,379 products
The take-it-as-it-comes employee$83,452 of after-tax salary$83,452 for 81,021 products
Government$62,418 in tax$62,418 for 60,600 products

The pre-tax income of the long-sighted employee in year 2 is $104,030 of salary plus $3,452 of interest, summing to $107,482. So the long-sighted employee has higher pre-tax income than the other employees, simply because of a deal struck between peers.

There is an inherent difference between income tax and GST that makes GST better.

To extract the money it demands, the government imposes an income tax rate of 19.8 per cent. The rate is lower than in year 1 because the government has dreamt up more income to tax than just salary income.

The long-sighted employee pays more tax in year 2 than any other citizen ($21,261 compared to $20,578). The long-sighted employee ends up purchasing less than double what the take-it-as-it comes employee purchases, despite the long-sighted employee having gone without all purchases in year 1.

This intrusion into the deal struck between the long-sighted employee and the short-sighted employee is how income tax punishes saving.

Even if the long-sighted and short-sighted employees respond to the imposition of income tax by negotiating a change in the interest payment involved in their arrangement, this would just mean they share the punishment of deal-making meted out by income tax, a punishment that the take-it-as-it-comes employee avoids.

As income tax penalises deal-making between savers and borrowers, while GST does not, income is inherently inferior to GST.

25 Provocative Predictions For 2024 From The World’s #1 Political Observer

GOVERNMENT OVERREACH

  1. Habeas corpus will not be restored in Australia.
  1. The Australian Federal Budget will be in deficit and expenditure will increase on the previous year.

    Correct: “A deficit of $28.3 billion is forecast in 2024–25.”
    Source: Statement 1: Budget Overview. Page 2.
    https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-1.pdf

    Correct: Forecast expenditures for 2023-24 and 2024-25 are $691,070,000,000 and $734,518,000,000 respectively.
    Source: Statement 6: Expenses and Net Capital Investment. Page 233.
    https://budget.gov.au/content/bp1/index.htm


ENVIRONMENT

  1. There will be at least 7 tropical cyclones or severe tropical cyclones in Australia.

    Correct:
    Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek. 10-25 Jan 2024.
    Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Kirrily. 12 Jan – 5 Feb 2024.
    Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. 14-25 Feb 2024.
    Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville. 4-24 Mar 2024.
    Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Megan. 13-21 Mar 2024.
    Category 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone Olga. 4-11 Apr 2024.
    Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Paul. 9-12 Apr 2024.
    Source:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%9324_Australian_region_cyclone_season

STOCK MARKET

  1. Woolworths’ revenue will be lower in the March 2024 quarter than in the March 2023 quarter.

    Incorrect: Federal Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton, called for a Woolworths boycott because it would not stock Australia Day paraphernalia. I incorrectly thought this extraordinary interference with the market might suppress sales below the same quarter the previous year. However, revenue for the 2024 March quarter was $16,800,000,000, higher than for the 2023 March quarter which was $16,338,000,000.
    Source: Page 2.
    https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240502/pdf/0634t0t80r8xxq.pdf

HEALTH

  1. There will be 10 or less global cases of wild polio.

    Pending: As at 25 May 2024, there have been two cases of wild polio globally, both in Pakistan. Watch this space for more updates.
    Source:
    https://www.who.int/news/item/08-04-2024-statement-following-the-thirty-eighth-meeting-of-the-ihr-emergency-committee-for-polio#:~:text=Sudan%20and%20Sudan.-,Wild%20poliovirus,samples%20to%20date%20in%202024
  1. For the first time, 33% or more of the Australian population will be obese.

SOCIAL TRENDS

  1. The sale of sex dolls will increase in Australia.
  1. In at least one month during 2024, social media platform X will attract more than 450 million monthly users.

    Correct: On 24 May 2024, Elon Musk announced X achieved over 600 million monthly active users.
    Source:
    https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/elon-musk-x-now-600-million-monthly-active-users/717078/ and https://backlinko.com/twitter-users#twitter-monthly-users
  1. Mount Barker SA will have a larger population than Busselton WA, Orange NSW, Bowral NSW, Dubbo NSW, Nowra NSW or Bathurst NSW.
  1. At least 25% of Australians will attend church monthly.
  1. Less than 50% of Australians will use TV as their source of news.
  1. Pet ownership in Australia will grow to more than 70% of all households.

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

  1. Space X’s Starship will successfully reach orbit. 

ECONOMICS

  1. The number of new incorporations will decrease in Australia from the previous year.

    Pending: In 2022-23, there were 406,365 business entries in Australia. We are waiting for the 2023-24 number
    Source:
    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/business-indicators/counts-australian-businesses-including-entries-and- exits/latest-release
  1. Cash transactions will decrease below 17% of total transactions.
  1. Australian coal exports will increase from last year.


ELECTIONS

  1. The ALP-Greens Coalition will be returned to government in the ACT General Election.
  1. The Country Liberal Party will win the Northern Territory General Election.

    Correct: The CLP won the election on 24 Aug 2024.
    Source:
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/country-liberal-party-promises-new-chapter-after-northern-territory-election-win/cwyuz1x0a
  1. The Liberal-National Party will win the Queensland State Election.
  1. Barring court-affirmed election fraud, a diagnosis of ill-health, imprisonment or assassination, Donald Trump will win the US Presidency.


GEOPOLITICS

  1. In 2024, China will neither invade Taiwan by land nor impose a naval blockade.
  1. The United Nations General Assembly will pass at least three resolutions concerning Israel and Australia will vote with the United States.

    Pending: UN Security Council Resolution 2735 adopted 10 June 2024.
    Source: https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n24/165/11/pdf/n2416511.pdf
  1. There will be no resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.
  1. At least two international borders will change.

    Correct:
    1 Jan 2024. Republic of Artsakh reintegrated into Azerbaijan.
    1 Apr 2024. Puntland announces independence from Somalia.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_border_changes_(1914%E2%80%93present)

DEATHS

  1. At least two of the following people will die: Ray Lawler, Sophia Loren, Julian Assange, Patricia Routledge, Tom Hughes, Jimmy Carter, Mike Carlton.

    Pending: Ray Lawler died on 24 July 2024.
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Lawler

SUMMARY
Correct: 5
Pending: 19
Incorrect: 1

The Tax Power

The Commissioner of Taxation has too much power. 

Libertarians consider tax to be either theft or, at best, should be low and flat to cover bare necessities. It certainly shouldn’t be as complex as it is or run to thousands of pages

Most mainstream tax reform proponents have grandiose visions that would only add complexity and likely raise the overall tax burden. Libertarians rightly oppose those ideas as they come. 

However, there is an easy win that ought to be important to libertarians: we need to limit the Commissioner of Taxation’s powers. It’s not exciting work, like developing new systems, but it is significant. 

First, the Commissioner has too much power to amend assessments. 

Australia has a self-assessment tax system. That means we declare income and allowable deductions, which the Commissioner accepts but can then amend if he considers the taxpayer was wrong. 

Libertarians can demand fairer amendment periods, a fairer burden of proof, and less funding for the Commissioner. 

For individuals the Commissioner can amend an assessment within two years. For businesses, it is usually four years. 

However, the relevant section of the law for income tax – leaving aside equivalent sections for other taxes – is around 3000 words– because it contains “ifs” and “buts” to protect the Commissioner. 

For example, if the Commissioner makes a tax avoidance determination, he can have four years instead of two years to change an assessment. If the Commissioner believes there has been fraud or evasion, he has an unlimited amendment period. If the Commissioner believes a particular section of the tax law relating to trusts applies, he again has an unlimited amendment period.  

These powers predate most of this century’s technological advances, which enable the Commissioner to work more efficiently and collect more data. Also, many amendments to the tax law in recent years have made it easier for the Commissioner to apply the law, including changes to avoidance laws favouring the Commissioner.

It must be a libertarian position to reduce amendment periods. 

Second, the Commissioner does not need to prove anything in litigation. The starkest example of this rule operating unjustly is when the Commissioner has amended a taxpayer’s assessment because he believes fraud or evasion has occurred. 

The Commissioner need only believe there has been fraud or evasion. 

He can form this opinion about any year – 2003, for example. And if he goes back to 2003, he will likely repeat that for many subsequent years, and he will apply penalties and interest. 

Most mainstream tax reform proponents have grandiose visions that would only add complexity

Suppose the matter is in the Australian Administrative Appeals Tribunal or the Federal Court of Australia. The Commissioner will not need to prove the truth of his opinion. Also, it doesn’t matter if the taxpayer proves the Commissioner’s opinion was wrong. The taxpayer’s task, two decades later, is to show that its accounting was correct. Not surprisingly, most people do not have records that go back that far. 

It must be a libertarian position to oppose the power to simply deem fraud, and to demand a time limit on the exercise of the fraud or evasion power. The Commissioner should have an obligation to prove fraud or evasion has occurred before the taxpayer must prove its accounts. 

Third, the Commissioner is emboldened to use his amendment powers through funding. The Commissioner receives substantial funding to run the Australian Taxation Office. 

Libertarians would rightly want that funding limited. 

However, there is also a perpetual cycle of giving the Commissioner additional funding to use his amendment powers, particularly under the auspices of tax avoidance.   

Libertarians would want that funding limited because it encourages the Commissioner to use his firmest amendment powers. It also raises questions about the management of public finances – should the Commissioner be “rewarded” with additional funding for things he should already be doing? 

Libertarians can demand fairer amendment periods, a fairer burden of proof, and less funding for the Commissioner. 

It would be hard to think that most taxpayers would not be libertarians regarding these issues.

Victoria: Back in the Basket Again

Reproduced with permission from The BFD

https://thebfd.co.nz/2024/05/09/victoria-back-in-the-basket-again/

I grew up in Victoria (don’t judge me, it wasn’t always the way it’s become), and lived through the dark days of the early 90s. Back then, it seemed that hardly a week went by without another economic calamity: the Pyramid building society collapse, the Tricontinental bank collapse, the State Bank of Victoria collapse, and the Victorian Economic Development Corporation collapse. 

Not to mention the collapse of the Victorian branch of the National Safety Council of Australia under a cloud of embezzlement. The state’s credit rating plunged from a gold-standard AAA to an embarrassing AA+.

Fun times.

Well, to spin the old Chinese curse, Victorians are living in fun times again. The most indebted state in Australia, and diving deeper into the red for the foreseeable future. Once again, all at the hands of a Labor government.

It’s clearly not as if there’s no room for cleaning out the bureaucracy in Victoria. 

The state’s credit rating is now a dire AA, and under threat of plunging further — which makes even paying off debt more expensive.

Over the four financial years covered by the budget, the annual interest required to service Victoria’s debt will jump from $6.3 billion to $9.3 billion. This is a serious chunk of change and, as a statistical quirk, the fastest-growing expenditure item listed on the government’s cash flow statement.

Victoria’s net debt – the total amount we owe – is forecast to pass $187.8 billion by July 2028 on the way to an unknown, distant peak. It is unfair to characterise it as a mountain because, at this point, there is no downward slope discernible to Treasury officials.

“As a proportion of gross state product, Victoria’s net debt is going to be higher than it was at the end of the Cain/Kirner years,” says economist Saul Eslake. “If I was a Victorian taxpayer, I would be worried about that.

“Certainly outside of Victoria, everyone thinks Victoria is a basket case.”

Astonishingly, Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas claims the debt has “stabilised”.

In the six months since Pallas published his last update of Victoria’s finances, the bottom line has gone backwards by $2 billion.

In the mid-year budget review tabled in December, the cash deficit for 2023-24 – the total revenue raised by the government less everything it spends – was forecast to be $13.1 billion. On Tuesday, that figure was revised to $15.2 billion.   The Age

So very stable.

Over the four financial years covered by the budget, the annual interest required to service Victoria’s debt will jump from $6.3 billion to $9.3 billion.

Remember when Dan Andrews promised 4000 ICU beds? Yeah, neither does he. In fact, Victoria’s health system — traditionally a Labor strength — is in for a major trimming-down. Although, in a rare departure for any government, let alone Labor, it seems as though it’s bureaucratic fat that’s getting cut.

A leaked document, seen by this masthead, reveals one of the options is mergers – or “consolidations” – which would mean many existing health services would lose their own chief executive and local boards and have them replaced by an advisory board.

It’s clearly not as if there’s no room for cleaning out the bureaucracy in Victoria. The state has 76 health services, compared with 17 in more populous NSW, 16 in Queensland, 10 in SA, five in WA, and just three in Tasmania. Even New Zealand only has 20 district health boards.

But that’s not how it’s going to be spun by vested interests. Labor risks getting on the wrong side of the powerful hospital unions. Already, the complaints are starting.

It doesn’t look as though the budget is buying Victorian Labor any love at all.

Treasurer Tim Pallas said his 10th budget would help families, but the only sweetener was payments of $400 per child from next year for the families of students in Victorian public schools and concession cardholders at non-government schools.  The Age

In fact, if The Age’s vox pop is anything to go by, not many “key stakeholders”, as the jargon goes, are particularly happy.

Certainly not young families, commuters, or small business owners.

In 92, it took the mongrel of Jeff Kennett and Alan Stockdale to fix the Victorian basket case.

Who’s going to save Australia’s Wokest State from itself, this time?

Curse of The Planner

In her excellent book The Siberian Curse, British-American author Fiona Hill describes how the settlement of Siberia in the twentieth century and the mass movement of people and industry into this vast region by central planners lie at the root of many of Russia’s contemporary problems.

Central planning – whether geo-political, social, urban or economic – has caused many a disaster.

Examples abound around the world, but allow me to cite a local one.

Worst of all, it puts home ownership out of the reach of those on low and middle incomes. 

A number of years ago, I bought a block of land on a very busy main road in one of Australia’s capital cities.  I submitted plans to the local council to build 12 semi-detached home units on the land and, as the zoning allowed for such a development, I didn’t expect any problems. That was of course until I came up against the Council Town Planner who said he’d recommend the development be approved “subject to the provision of noise attenuation devices” across the front of the property (noise attenuation is a fancy name for sound-proofing).  I tried to point out that there were thousands of kilometres of main roads with many thousands of dwellings fronting these main roads and it all seemed to work quite well without ‘sound attenuation’. I also told him that the project was actually geared towards older people, many of whom prefer the noise of traffic and pedestrians chatting as they said it made them feel safer than in some quiet back street or cul-de-sac.  But he was having none of it. He wanted his noise attenuation devices.  

Naturally, I tried the commercial argument that people who didn’t like noise wouldn’t buy into the project and that the market would sort it out.  But for reasons known only to town planners but obscure to common sense, he rejected all my pleas, and I had an acoustic engineer design a front fence to assist with noise attenuation.  But no sooner had I finished the job than the Royal Society for the Deaf bought all the units – every single one of them.  I showed the planner the contract and he couldn’t even see the funny side of it. 

Ludwig von Mises, one of the most notable economists and social philosophers of the 20th century, observed:

Ludwig von Mises

‘The planner is a potential dictator who wants to deprive all other people of the power to plan and act according to their own plans.  Planners aim at one thing only:  the exclusive absolute pre-eminence of their own plans.’

National, State and Local government planners now infiltrate our lives at every turn. 

Take the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for example, the nation’s main economic planner.

The RBA has over 1,500 staff and as well as its headquarters in Sydney, has offices in London, New York and Beijing. 

The RBA basically has one main task – to control inflation. As we know, inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods and services. When governments contribute to this by running deficits, the RBA is there to put up interest rates and make the government feel the pain of their spending. In recent years, however, the RBA did not do this. In fact, in spite of record deficit-spending, former RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in 2021 the bank would be keeping interest rates low until at least 2024! 

Central planning – whether geo-political, social, urban or economic – has caused many a disaster.

Since then it has raised interest rates 14 times in an attempt to bring inflation under control, in effect shifting the inflation burden to consumers – particularly low-income consumers – through price rises. 

One can also trace the current housing affordability crisis back to the RBA when it similarly refused to admit it made a mistake with its submission to the 2003 Productivity Commission Inquiry into First Home Ownership. The Bank’s focus on demand stimulators (capital gains tax, negative gearing, low interest rates, etc. – all Federal matters) and not supply factors had a huge influence in shaping the Productivity Commission’s findings. 

As we now know, the RBA overlooked the real source of the affordability problem – the unwillingness by State governments to release more land for new housing and urban planners’ obsession with urban densification, an idea that has failed all over the world. Whether it’s traffic congestion, air pollution, the destruction of bio-diversity or the unsustainable pressure on electricity, water, sewage, or stormwater infrastructure, urban densification has been a disaster. Worst of all, it puts home ownership out of the reach of those on low and middle incomes. 

As von Mises observed, the step between planner and dictator is not as big as some might think. When their plans are rejected, planners become indignant, and instead of adjusting their plans to suit the people who have rejected their ideas, they seek ways to enforce their will on the people. The inner authoritarian is revealed.

The Missing Ingredient – Assimilation

When Al Grassby was Immigration Minister in the Whitlam government in the early 1970s, he announced that multiculturalism was to be Australia’s future policy. Assimilation was over. 

There was a time when Australia actively promoted assimilation. It was the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries  and applied to Aborigines, varied by state and location, involved the removal of vulnerable children from families, included an obligation to learn English, discouraged speaking local languages, and prohibited certain customary practices – particularly those involving violence. 

But Grassby was not referring here to Aborigines or to policies from the distant past. Nor was it a reference to the White Australia policy, which the Whitlam government had officially ended. His comment was about new immigrants and implied that they had been subject to a policy of assimilation. 

In the generally accepted meaning of the word, this was complete nonsense. What Australia had was a policy of promoting integration. And, as history shows, it had been remarkably successful. 

The point is, values matter. Australia does not need multiculturalism.

Mostly European and British, Australia’s post-war immigrants were referred to as “New Australians”. Although encouraged to learn English, they were never asked to disown their origins. There were free English classes for adults, and parents were required to send their children to school, like everyone else, where lessons were conducted in English. The kids often became interpreters for their parents. 

Most immigrants became Australian citizens relatively quickly, the only negative being they had to renounce the citizenship of their original country; Australia did not permit dual citizenship until 2000. 

If the immigrants themselves had mixed feelings, the second or third generations saw themselves as Australians first and their country of origin second. Immigrants married other immigrants, their children married other immigrant children, and many went on to be highly successful. 

The Whitlam government also began to admit significant numbers of people from Asia, initially Vietnam and Cambodia. And while there were pockets of resistance to this, with Whitlam himself wary of accepting anti-communist Vietnamese refugees, these also integrated well. Later waves from places such as Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Hong Kong, Malaysia and India were equally successful. 

But then something changed. Certain immigrants began to form enclaves and avoid contact with other Australians They also made minimal effort to learn English. The men often went back to their country of origin to find a wife, even if they were born in Australia, refusing to contemplate finding one locally. 

Most importantly, they became contemptuous of Australian culture and values while demanding respect for their own. This was not about football, music or food, but core aspects of liberal democracy: equality before the law, presumption of innocence, respect, democracy, free speech, economic opportunity, and tolerance. This was accompanied by a major upsurge in violent crime and welfare fraud. 

While it obviously reflects a failure to integrate, this is nonetheless multiculturalism. The culture of these people is maintained in parallel with Australia’s traditional culture. 

If the immigrants themselves had mixed feelings, the second or third generations saw themselves as Australians first and their country of origin second.

After several decades of this, Australia’s laidback ‘live and let live’ culture is now under serious challenge. 

In a number of countries in Europe, the same issue has arisen. Several are now abandoning multiculturalism in favour of active integration. Perhaps it could even be called assimilation. 

The Netherlands, for example, now requires most immigrants (including asylum seekers) to undertake a “civic integration” examination within three years of arrival. The examination tests knowledge of the Dutch language and society, and a pass is required to obtain permanent residence and citizenship. Certain classes of prospective immigrants must also pass a test even before they first enter the country. The pass mark is being steadily raised. 

It is obvious that Al Grassby’s policy is no longer appropriate, if it ever was. Liberal democratic values are jeopardised when authoritarian, doctrinaire or anti-liberal cultures are given equal standing. The presumption of innocence took a major hit in the Higgins case, for example; equality before the law came under threat with the Voice referendum; freedom of speech faces yet more limits with the Government’s Misinformation and Disinformation bill; and economic opportunity is being squeezed by excessive taxation and red tape. Meanwhile, tolerance is challenged by cancel culture and antisemitism.

None of these is directly attributable to a failure of immigrants to integrate, but they indicate a lack of national commitment. If traditional values are not defended, alternative values will inevitably gain a foothold. 

There are multiple ways to rectify this problem. Australia already has an integration test for citizenship, for example, but it could be made more like that of the Dutch. There are many sources of potential immigrants, so we could select those most likely to integrate (most of those refusing to integrate come from the Middle East). And we could also make it abundantly clear to prospective immigrants that they are expected to adapt to Australian culture, not vice versa.  

The point is, values matter. Australia does not need multiculturalism.

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